To get rid of Labor in November, it looks like we need Pauline
Jess Wilson taking the Premiership off Labor now leans on One Nation preferences and a Pauline swing in the outer suburbs and the regions. Here is what each party is actually lobbying on, and the one thing you can promise a buyer today.
To get rid of Labor in November, it's looking like we need Pauline.
Jess Wilson becoming Premier in November and ousting Labor is looking more and more reliant on the preferences of One Nation, and on Pauline being able to pull a decent swing in the outer suburbs and regional centres of Victoria.
Melbourne has shown itself to be a very green-swinging city, which means anything could happen in the inner seats where Labor and the Greens fight each other and the Liberals barely register.
But on the current polls, a Coalition government is the most likely result, even if it is a minority. And based on what I am hearing, the property industry will be happy if we just get a change and can shake off Labor.
## Here's what the different parties are lobbying on
### Liberal-National Coalition
- Abolish stamp duty for first home buyers on properties up to $1 million, established or off-the-plan. - Restore the land tax threshold from $50,000 to $300,000 over five years. - Scrap the activity centres and the 70 per cent established-areas target. Return planning decisions to councils and restore third party appeal rights. - Extend the Capital City Zone into Fishermans Bend, North Melbourne, Fitzroy and Collingwood. - Clear the backlog of 27 Precinct Structure Plans in the growth corridors. - Abolish the Emergency Services and Volunteers Fund levy, the short stay levy and the schools payroll tax. - No stated position on windfall gains tax, vacant residential land tax, foreign buyer taxes, or the off-the-plan concession after April 2027.
### Labor
- Keep the activity centres, the Townhouse Code with deemed-to-comply approvals, and the 70 per cent established-areas target. - Restore the land tax threshold from $50,000 to $300,000 over six years. - Review the absentee owner surcharge and the foreign purchaser duty if re-elected. Exempt affordable housing developers from the absentee owner surcharge during construction and for two years after. - Deliver 25,000 homes on government land reserved for first home buyers, under a $3 billion agreement with the Commonwealth. - Keep the off-the-plan stamp duty concession to April 2027 and the current first home buyer thresholds. - Continue the public housing tower redevelopment program.
### One Nation
- Wind back the land tax increases. No threshold or timeframe stated. - Raise the foreign purchaser duty above the current 8 per cent. - Put a legal time limit on planning and building approvals, with the application granted if the agency fails to decide. - Require community consultation before high-rise development in established suburbs. - Release under-used government land for housing. - Allow rental of granny flats and spare rooms without state tax or restriction. - Abolish stamp duty on insurance. Abolish payroll tax in regional Victoria. Scrap the Suburban Rail Loop.
### Greens
- Freeze rents for two years, then cap increases at the lower of wage growth or CPI, tied to the property. - License landlords, with a three-strikes rule. - Land tax of 5.3 per cent on investors holding more than $5 million of residential investment property. - Abolish stamp duty for all owner-occupiers on homes up to $1.1 million, sliding scale to $1.6 million. - Build 88,000 public homes and stop the demolition of the public housing towers. - Mandatory affordable housing share in all large residential developments.
| Coalition | Labor | One Nation | Greens | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stamp duty | First home buyers exempt to $1m | No change, off-the-plan concession to April 2027 | No change | All owner-occupiers exempt to $1.1m |
| Land tax threshold | $300,000 over five years | $300,000 over six years | Wound back, no detail | 5.3% rate on holdings over $5m |
| Activity centres | Scrapped, councils back in charge | Kept | Consultation required before high-rise | Kept, with affordable housing mandate |
| Inner city | Capital City Zone extended to Fishermans Bend, North Melbourne, Fitzroy, Collingwood | As is | As is | As is |
| Growth areas | 27 PSPs cleared | Commonwealth infrastructure deal | Government land released | No policy |
| Foreign buyers | No position | Review surcharge and duty | Duty raised above 8% | No position |
| Renters | No policy | No change | Granny flats and rooms freed up | Rent freeze then cap, landlord licensing |
| Appeal rights | Restored | Removed under deemed-to-comply | Not stated | Community participation required |
## So where does that leave us
If the Coalition gets there, with or without Pauline's help, investors and first home buyers get most of what they have been asking for and the activity centre landholders pay for it. If Labor hangs on, it hangs on with the Greens, and the price of that is paid by the investor who buys off-the-plan: capped rent, a licence to be a landlord, and a compulsory affordable share on every large project.
Either way the land tax threshold goes back to $300,000, because every party has now said so. That is the one thing you can promise a buyer today.
The rest comes down to how much of a swing Pauline pulls in the outer suburbs and the regions, and whether inner Melbourne goes green enough to keep Labor in the game. On what we are hearing, the industry has already decided which result it wants. Whether Victorians agree is what we find out on 28 November.
