New build prices are rising whilst the second hand market falls.
In the last 5 months (aprox) house-and-land package prices accross Melbourne have gone up 1.4%, whilst Melbourne dwelling values have fallen 2.8%.
From mid-April to early September, 70% house-and-land packages increased in price by an average of 1.4%. That's happening whilst CoreLogic has Melbourne dwelling values 2.8% lower. If your buyer is waiting for a cheaper price and a better time to buy they are unlikely to find it.
The reason isn't sentiment, it's arithmetic. A new build is priced cost-plus: the builder starts from what it costs to construct and adds a margin, so a resale index doesn't enter their calculations. Cordell's Construction Cost Index rose 3.7% in the year to February 2026, and Rider Levett Bucknall's 2026 forecast sits at 4%. Whilst those inputs keep rising, the price the builder charges has to rise with them.
But even with higher prices the tax concessions now only available on new builds still makes buying off the plan stack up over the secondary market. Try this free calculator to understand the difference: https://themove.com.au/calculators/new-vs-established
