Labour has battered the property industry this year with the biggest tax changes in over a decade. Now a change looks increasingly likely, let's look at what that will mean for the industry side by side.
Victorians vote on 28 November. The Coalition leads in every poll published since mid October, and Jess Wilson is preferred premier over Ben Carroll in all of them. A change of government is the most likely result, and most of the property industry would welcome it. To retain control Labour would almost certainly need the support of the Greens which is likely to bring more anti property industry policies, like the recent SMSF lending ban.
| Coalition | Labor | One Nation | Greens | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stamp duty | First home buyers exempt to $1m | No change. First home buyers exempt to $600k, off-the-plan concession to April 2027 | No change on property. Insurance duty abolished | All owner-occupiers exempt to $1.1m |
| Land tax | Threshold back to $300,000 over five years | Threshold back to $300,000 over six years | Increases wound back, no detail | 5.3% rate on residential holdings over $5m |
| Activity centres | Scrapped, councils back in charge | Kept, up to 20 storeys in inner suburbs | Consultation required before high-rise | Kept, with affordable housing mandate |
| Inner city | Capital City Zone extended to Fishermans Bend, North Melbourne, Fitzroy, Collingwood | As is | As is | As is |
| Growth areas | 27 PSPs cleared | 25,600 homes for first home buyers | Government land released | No policy |
| Foreign buyers | No position | Review surcharge and duty | Duty raised above 8% | No position |
| Renters | No policy | No change | Granny flats and rooms freed up | Rent freeze then cap, landlord licensing |
| Appeal rights | Restored | Removed under deemed-to-comply | Not stated | Community participation required |
| Selling | No change | No change | No change | Auctions abolished, fixed-price sales |
Where the polls sit
Seven public polls have been published since mid October. The Coalition's primary vote sits between 29 and 33 per cent, Labor between 18 and 24, One Nation between 20 and 23 and the Greens between 13 and 17. On two-party preferred the Coalition leads Labor by between 55-45 and 57-43. Wilson leads Carroll as preferred premier by 8 to 14 points.
The margins at the moment are not wide, so the minor parties policy positions actually matter as a strong majority government is not guaranteed.
What each party has committed to
Liberal-National Coalition
- Abolish stamp duty for first home buyers on properties up to $1 million, established or off-the-plan.
- Restore the land tax threshold from $50,000 to $300,000 over five years.
- Scrap the activity centres and the 70 per cent established-areas target. Return planning decisions to councils and restore third party appeal rights.
- Extend the Capital City Zone into Fishermans Bend, North Melbourne, Fitzroy and Collingwood.
- Clear the backlog of 27 Precinct Structure Plans in the growth corridors.
- Abolish the Emergency Services and Volunteers Fund levy on family homes, the short stay levy and the schools payroll tax.
- No stated position on windfall gains tax, vacant residential land tax, foreign buyer taxes, or the off-the-plan concession after April 2027.
Labor
- Keep the activity centres, the Townhouse Code with deemed-to-comply approvals, and the 70 per cent established-areas target.
- Restore the land tax threshold from $50,000 to $300,000 over six years.
- Review the absentee owner surcharge and the foreign purchaser duty if re-elected. Exempt affordable housing developers from the absentee owner surcharge during construction and for two years after.
- Build 25,600 homes reserved for first home buyers at market prices across Melbourne and the regional cities, with the first due in 2027.
- Keep the off-the-plan stamp duty concession to April 2027 and the current first home buyer thresholds.
- Continue the public housing tower redevelopment program.
One Nation
- Wind back the land tax increases. No threshold or timeframe stated.
- Review every government fee, tax and charge on a new home and cut those no longer justified.
- Raise the foreign purchaser duty above the current 8 per cent.
- Put a legal time limit on planning and building approvals, with the application granted if the agency fails to decide.
- Require community consultation before high-rise development in established suburbs.
- Release under-used government land for housing.
- Allow rental of granny flats and spare rooms without state tax or restriction.
- Abolish stamp duty on insurance. Abolish payroll tax in regional Victoria. Scrap the Suburban Rail Loop.
Greens
- Freeze rents for two years, then cap increases at the lower of wage growth or CPI, tied to the property.
- License landlords through a new rental regulator, with a three-strikes rule.
- Land tax of 5.3 per cent on investors holding more than $5 million of residential investment property.
- Abolish stamp duty for all owner-occupiers on homes up to $1.1 million, sliding scale to $1.6 million.
- Abolish auctions and require every home to be sold at a fixed price.
- Tax vacant commercial property in Melbourne at 3 per cent.
- Build 88,000 public homes and stop the demolition of the public housing towers.
- Mandatory affordable housing share in all large residential developments.
What it means for buyers
The Coalition, Labor and One Nation have all committed to winding back the land tax increases.
A Coalition government delivers most of what investors and first home buyers have asked for: no stamp duty for first home buyers to $1 million, the land tax threshold restored a year sooner, and more inner-city zoning. The only part of the industry who will not appreciate the Liberal party are developers banking on the activity centres as they lose the uplift they have been counting on.
If Labor is returned it almost certainly would need the Greens. That brings rent caps, landlord licensing and a compulsory affordable share on large projects into the negotiation, and the development industry would feel this the most.
We will find out on 28 November.
